I’m just going to go with my gut on this one and blurt it out: Bellew to win (by KO if Haye hasn’t learned anything from their first match, or a close decision if Haye’s body holds up and he fights smart). Even though some oddsmakers have Bellew a 2/1 underdog, I’m sticking with that call.
Bellew is convincingly oozing confidence right now. He’s beaten Haye once, has likely won the battle of psychological warfare leading up to this rematch, and, unlike Haye (who has torn his Achilles tendon and bicep, all within the last year and change), hasn’t suffered any major injuries himself. So I’m assuming, anyway.
So what is it that the oddsmakers know that I don’t? Maybe something. Maybe everything. I can’t quite put my finger on it, and I can’t really tell you all that much about the recovery times of torn biceps, Achilles and the like. One thing I know is that boxing history tells us that injuries like these have a habit of crashing the party at bad times, never really going away.
Of Haye, I just keep thinking: 37-years-old, almost four years out of the ring with a shoulder injury prior to 2016 comeback, tears Achilles in 2017, then bicep soon after. How bad are things under that hood exactly?
Forgetting the fight itself, and the shoulder and bicep for a moment, Haye has had no longer than fourteen months to recover from that Achilles injury – one which literally had him reduced to a hobbled, shuffling punch target for Bellew in their first match. So, time-wise, Haye has been really up against it to get in ‘fit, healthy’ fighting shape.
Surprisingly – or perhaps not so surprisingly – I’ve heard very little from broadcasters about Haye’s brittle body in the lead up to this rematch. Haye has undergone surgery on that Achilles, supposedly taken at least a few months off to heal, and then learnt how to walk again before finally enduring a twelve-week training camp. Usually those things are pretty gruelling for most humans.
A bit of light research informs me that the recovery time of a torn Achilles is generally four to six months (for non-athletes). So, how has Haye fared in camp? Has he ditched road work and sprints altogether? I’ve absolutely no idea, but can’t help thinking that Haye and his team must have devised a specific program to reduce the stress on that ankle area. Will that affect Haye’s performance?
It would be foolish for Bellew’s team to assume that Haye’s body will definitely fall apart again in the rematch, but I expect their preferred gameplan is still to take Haye past the middle rounds in the hope that something will go pop. It sounds almost malevolent, even unsporting, but is no doubt a tactic.
My prediction could be wrong, of course. Very wrong. Haye might blow out Bellew in the opening rounds, or even outclass Bellew over the distance. Maybe Haye will prove that Bellew only looked great in their original meeting because Haye was looking ahead to bigger fights, instead of focusing on the beatable man right in front of him. Maybe all that injury talk I’ve been crowing on about won’t even come into it.
But no back-tracking. Even if Haye has recovered fully – or ‘enough’ at least – to fight twelve, hard rounds, I think Bellew is young, fit and good enough to beat this version of David Haye. For a Heavyweight, 37-years-old is getting on a bit, most would agree. It’s the age when a lot of big guys start going down hill; a bit, noticeably, or a lot. Could Bellew have beaten the David Haye of old? The prime version? No. I’d say definitely not. But today’s version? Yes. I believe he can.
For me, the story of this fight all hinges on how much hunger Haye has left to grit it out in hard fights, and, of course, what his body can actually still do. I’m expecting Haye to fight more cautiously, not pressuring Bellew too much (in order to limit the strain on that body), instead looking to counter with something big during an exchange, with the initial gameplan being to win a decision here. So I’m anticipating a smart, thinking, economical Haye.
However, I think Bellew won’t go looking for Haye too much either, at least in the first half of the fight, preferring to do the bulk of his work later where he’ll either start taking over or will bag a late round knockout if the opportunity presents itself. For the record, I’m hoping that we get a good, injury-free fight – I’ve no desire to see Haye (or Bellew, for that matter) take the kind of unnecessary punishment he wound up receiving last time round.
Prediction: Bellew by close decision or late TKO (I’m leaning with the TKO)
How do you see Haye vs Bellew II unfolding this weekend? Chime in with those predictions in the comments.
